Below you find a visualisation of all forecasts made for the UK Covid-19 Crowd Forecasting Challenge as well as an evaluation of the forecasts.
If you want to learn more about the crowd forecasting challenge and how to participate, visit crowdforecastr.org
The plot shows the combined forecast of all participants. Forecasts are combined by taking the average of all predictions. The date of the tab marks the date on which a forecast was made.
Visualisation of individual forecasts. The date of the tab marks the date on which a forecast was made.
Scores separated by target and forecast horizon.
Visualisation of the weighted interval score over time. In addition, the components of the interval score, sharpness (how narrow are forecasts - smaller is better), and penalties for underprediction and overprediction are shown. Scores are again separated by forecast horizon
## location_name target_variable sd mean min max median
## 1: United Kingdom inc case 12.24453 24.75 15 54 21.5
## 2: United Kingdom inc death 11.25040 22.50 13 49 20.0